Estimated Net Earnings by Solar PV Size

For 2023

YearGeneration per Year (MWh)CreditsConservative Case
Aggressive Case
20233.1051$39$41
20243.0431$47$57
20252.9821$54$66
20262.9221$62$75
20272.8641$68$84
20282.8071$68$93
20292.7511$68$102
20302.6961$68$111
20312.6421$68$120
20322.5891$68$128
TOTAL28.39910$606.00$876.75
YearGeneration per Year (MWh)CreditsConservative Case
Aggressive Case
20236.2103$117$124
20246.0863$140$171
20255.9643$162$198
20265.8453$185$225
20275.7283$203$252
20285.6133$203$279
20295.5013$203$306
20305.3912$135$222
20315.2832$135$240
20325.1782$135$255
TOTAL56.79927$1,615.50$2,271.75
YearGeneration per Year (MWh)CreditsConservative Case
Aggressive Case
20239.3155$195$206
20249.1295$233$285
20258.9464$216$264
20268.7674$246$300
20278.5924$270$336
20288.4204$270$372
20298.2524$270$408
20308.0874$270$444
20317.9254$270$480
20327.7664$270$510
TOTAL85.19842$2,509.50$3,605.25
YearGeneration per Year (MWh)CreditsConservative Case
Aggressive Case
202312.4206$234$248
202412.1726$279$342
202511.9286$324$396
202611.6906$369$450
202711.4566$405$504
202811.2276$405$558
202911.0026$405$612
203010.7825$338$555
203110.5665$338$600
203210.3555$338$638
TOTAL113.59857$3,433.50$4,902.00
YearGeneration per Year (MWh)CreditsConservative Case
Aggressive Case
202315.5258$312$330
202415.2158$372$456
202514.9108$432$528
202614.6128$492$600
202714.3207$473$588
202814.0337$473$651
202913.7537$473$714
203013.4787$473$777
203113.2087$473$840
203212.9447$473$893
TOTAL141.99774$4,443.00$6,376.50
YearGeneration per Year (MWh)CreditsConservative Case
Aggressive Case
202318.63010$390$413
202418.25710$465$570
202517.8929$486$594
202617.5349$554$675
202717.1849$608$756
202816.8409$608$837
202916.5039$608$918
203016.1738$540$888
203115.8508$540$960
203215.5338$540$1,020
TOTAL170.39789$5,337.00$7,630.50
YearGeneration per Year (MWh)CreditsConservative Case
Aggressive Case
202324.84013$507$536
202424.34313$605$741
202523.85613$702$858
202623.37912$738$900
202722.91212$810$1,008
202822.45312$810$1,116
202922.00412$810$1,224
203021.56411$743$1,221
203121.13311$743$1,320
203220.71011$743$1,403
TOTAL227.196120$7,209.00$10,326.75
YearGeneration per Year (MWh)CreditsConservative Case
Aggressive Case
202362.10034$1,326$1,403
202460.85833$1,535$1,881
202559.64132$1,728$2,112
202658.44832$1,968$2,400
202757.27931$2,093$2,604
202856.13330$2,025$2,790
202955.01130$2,025$3,060
203053.91129$1,958$3,219
203152.83229$1,958$3,480
203251.77628$1,890$3,570
TOTAL567.989308$18,504.00$26,518.50
YearGeneration per Year (MWh)CreditsConservative Case
Aggressive Case
2023124.20068$2,652$2,805
2024121.71666$3,069$3,762
2025119.28265$3,510$4,290
2026116.89664$3,936$4,800
2027114.55863$4,253$5,292
2028112.26761$4,118$5,673
2029110.02260$4,050$6,120
2030107.82159$3,983$6,549
2031105.66558$3,915$6,960
2032103.55156$3,780$7,140
TOTAL1,135.978620$37,264.50$53,391.00
YearGeneration per Year (MWh)CreditsConservative Case
Aggressive Case
2023248.400136$5,304$5,610
2024243.432133$6,185$7,581
2025238.563131$7,074$8,646
2026233.792128$7,872$9,600
2027229.116126$8,505$10,584
2028224.534123$8,303$11,439
2029220.043121$8,168$12,342
2030215.642118$7,965$13,098
2031211.330116$7,830$13,920
2032207.103113$7,628$14,408
TOTAL2,271.9561,245$74,832.00$107,227.50
YearGeneration per Year (MWh)CreditsConservative Case
Aggressive Case
2023621.000341$13,299$14,066
2024608.580334$15,531$19,038
2025596.408328$17,712$21,648
2026584.480321$19,742$24,075
2027572.791315$21,263$26,460
2028561.335308$20,790$28,644
2029550.108302$20,385$30,804
2030539.106296$19,980$32,856
2031528.324290$19,575$34,800
2032517.757284$19,170$36,210
TOTAL5,679.8893,119$187,446.00$268,601.25
YearGeneration per Year (MWh)CreditsConservative Case
Aggressive Case
20231,242.000683$26,637$28,174
20241,217.160669$31,109$38,133
20251,192.817656$35,424$43,296
20261,168.960642$39,483$48,150
20271,145.581630$42,525$52,920
20281,122.670617$41,648$57,381
20291,100.216605$40,838$61,710
20301,078.212593$40,028$65,823
20311,056.648581$39,218$69,720
20321,035.515569$38,408$72,548
TOTAL11,359.7796,245$375,315.00$537,854.25

YearGeneration per Year (MWh)CreditsConservative CaseAggressive Case
20231,863.0001,024$39,936$42,240
20241,825.7401,004$46,686$57,228
20251,789.225984$53,136$64,944
20261,753.441964$59,286$72,300
20271,718.372945$63,788$79,380
20281,684.004926$62,505$86,118
20291,650.324907$61,223$92,514
20301,617.318889$60,008$98,679
20311,584.972871$58,793$104,520
20321,553.272854$57,645$108,885
TOTAL17,039.6689,368$563,004.00$806,808.00

Notes on Estimated Net Earnings

  • Specific yield: 1254 MWh/MWp in Year 1 before derate loss
  • Solar derate loss: 2% per year
  • Grid emissions factor (Alberta, 2023): 0.55
  • Carbon price (minimum): $65.00 per tonne CO2e as per regulation
  • Carbon price (maximum): $170.00 per tonne CO2e as per regulated price increase of $15/year until 2030.
  • Conservative case assumes the buyer purchases credits at 35% below the annual carbon price.
  • Aggressive case assumes the buyer purchases credits at 20% below the annual carbon price.
  • Net earnings already subtract credit sale transaction fees. There are no other fees.
  • Estimated net earnings are not guaranteed.
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